Abstract:Systems have two categories, one is linear and the other is nonlinear.The linear systems have uniform descriptions and the nonlinear systems have countless categories and have no uniform descriptions.The linear-parameter systems are a special class of nonlinear systems and are linear on the parameter space.For pseudo-linear-parameter systems, this paper studies and presents the auxiliary model based multi-innovation(MI) identification methods, the data filtering based auxiliary model MI identification methods, the model decomposition based auxiliary model MI identification methods, and the filtering based decomposition MI identification methods.Finally, the computational efficiency, the computational steps and the flowcharts of several typical identification algorithms are discussed.

Abstract:The key aim of this serial is to study various stochastic models in finance with emphasise on the Monte Carlo simulations with R for these models.In this paper, we will study the linear stochastic differential equation (SDE) model for the asset price.We will define the It calculus and establish the It\hat\hboxo formula.Moreover, as the Monte Carlo simulations with R is our keytopic in this serial, we will review the developments of numerical solutionsin order to highlight this very popular area in the study of SDEs.

Abstract:As an important material basis for social and economic development, water resource in rational development and utilization is critical for social and economic sustainable development.Based on water consumption and supply data from Chinese Statistical Yearbook and Chinese Water Resources Bulletin from 2003 to 2012, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of water consumption and water resource utilization in China were analyzed by means of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis.The results show that in the last ten years the gross water usage have been increasing, but with reduced increase trend.The change of the gross water usage is diversified in different regions, which is greatest in area of middle east, and least in the western region.Hebei, Zhejiang, Hainan, Qinghai, and Gansu had an opposite trend in change of gross water usage compared with the rest of the provinces.Underground water is an important part of water resources.Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces utilize their underground water in a coordinated mode with industrial development, which can be models for other areas.Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Gansu, and Qinghai provinces optimize their usage of the underground water by restructuring their industrial development.However, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region are not optimistic in underground water utilization status and trends.More attention should be paid to strengthen the water resource protection and optimize the industrial structure, in order to develop and use water resources coordinately and sustainably in these areas.

Abstract:The three-dimensional matrix theory of A.D.Hall provided a systematic mode for project management.The Atmospheric observation System Operations and Monitoring (ASOM) project is taken as an example to investigate the three-dimensional matrix structure using the A.D.Hall theory.Taking into account the actual characteristics of meteorological engineering project, we construct the three dimensional matrix of meteorological management project including five time dimensions, seven logic dimensions and ten knowledge dimensions.The examination shows that the result has good applicability.This study could be taken as the basis of meteorological project construction management in China;at the same time, it provides reference for other industries in functional type management mode.

Abstract:The ocean wind and wave sensing utilizing reflected signal from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) provides a novel detection approach for marine meteorological observation, while the data analysis and validity verification are important to evaluate the performance of this technology.This paper introduces the sea wind detection mechanism using Beidou GEO satellites, and retrieves the sea wind based on the correlation time of the reflected signals of GEO satellite.The data collected by Beidou ocean remote sensing station of Shandong, which was set up for the demonstration of the Beidou application in oceanic, atmospheric and space monitoring and early warning program, are analyzed and compared with standard data, and the results prove the validity of the proposed method and the system.

Abstract:The CALPUFF modeling system is used to simulate the distribution of the atmospheric pollutant SO₂ concentration, based on the pollution investigation in Hefei city.Firstly, this model is validated by comparisonbetween CALPUFF simulated values and monitoring records for the pollutant SO₂.Then, a transfer matrix for air pollutants is established on the basis of source sharinganalysisfor atmospheric pollution.The environmental capacity of Hefei city for SO₂ is then estimated using linear programming model, taking into account ofaspects such as atmospheric diffusion capacity in urban area, pollution source contribution and air quality management targets.

Abstract:Summer rainfalls over North China in 1996 are simulated using regional climate model (RegCM3), and the simulation results are compared with the observed precipitations to investigate the model's capability to reproduce the daily variation of summer rainfall.Based on that, the terrain effects of Taihang Mountain on three heavy rainfall processes over North China have been investigated by orographic sensitive experiment.Results show that the model can reproduce the spatial distribution of the summer rainfall, which are consistent with the observations in aspects of location and shift of the rainfall belt during three typical heavy rainfall processes.But the model overestimates the quantity of the rainfalls.The orographic sensitive experiments indicate that the topography of Taihang Mountain plays significant but different roles in the three events of heavy rainfall.When the rainstorm mainly occurred over Taihang Mountain, easterly flow is resisted and lifted by the mountain, therefore increase the rainfall over the two slopes of Taihang Mountain;while the rainfall obviously decrease on both sides should the mountain removed.For the returning-flow rainstorm type, the topography significantly influences both the location and westward movement of the rainfall.While for the eastward moving rainstorm type, the topography only changes the intensity of rainfall but has little influence on the rainstorm location and related circulations.

Abstract:By using the radiosonde data and precipitation data in Lhasa station from 1969 to 2008, the evolution characteristics of precipitable water and precipitation in summer are discussed.The statistic results indicate that there is a significantly positive correlation between precipitable water and precipitation in summer.The precipitable water and precipitation have the same inter-annual variation and inter-decadal variation, having the periodic oscillation of 3-years and quasi-11-years respectively.In addition, both precipitable water and precipitation show increasing trend in the last 40 years.But the increasing of the precipitation is more obvious and the growth of precipitation is greater than that of precipitable water.The analysis of precipitation conversion efficiency showed that the mean summer precipitation conversion efficiency is 26.06% with evident inter-annual difference.The maximum conversion efficiency value is about three times of the minimum value.In the years with high precipitation conversion efficiency, both the convergence in the low levels and divergence in the high levels are strong, resulting in the strong vertical velocity in Lhasa, thus favors the precipitation formation, and vice versa.

Abstract:The precipitation and evaporation (measured by 20cm caliber) observation data during 1960—2009 in Changji city are analyzed using the methods of cumulative anomalies and linear tendency estimation.The results indicate obvious interannual variations in Changji's precipitation and evaporation at both annual and seasonal level.In the past 50 years, the annual and seasonal precipitations changed in significant linear trends, with increasing trend in the whole year, spring, summer and winter, while a slight decreasing trend in autumn.The evaporation decreased in significant linear trend in Changji city during 1960—2009.Thus, it can be concluded that the climate in Changji was generally getting wet in the past 50 years.

Abstract:Based on multiple physical quantity data issued by the T639 numerical forecast product, the localized temperature forecasting equations for counties and cities are established using multiple regression method, which are applied to forecast temperature in Zhenjiang of Jiangsu province.Combined with conventional meteorological observation data and the 6 h reanalysis data of United States NCEP/NCAR1 in 1°×1° grid point, the localized temperature forecast results are comparatively tested and analyzed.The results indicate that the proposed temperature forecast technique based on T639 is more accurate in minimum temperature prediction than in maximum temperature prediction, and more accurate in summer temperature forecast than in other seasons.Yangzhong and Danyang have the most accurate prediction result in maximum temperature and minimum temperature, respectively, compared with other counties or cities in Zhenjiang.Systemic negative deviation existed in objective forecast methods, which can be corrected through the use of seven day moving average of prediction error for corresponding forecast time-length.The correction results show that the prediction performance is improved, especially the maximum temperature prediction.The comparative analysis between subjective and objective prediction methods show that the objective one is weak in maximum temperature forecast, yet is of some value in temperature trend forecasting;the objective one is roughly similar in prediction accuracy for minimum temperature and thus can replace the subjective forecast.The objective prediction method in county level is valuable for forecast of disastrous weathers like high temperature and cold wave, yet is still weak in forecast performance compared with real-time weather data.

Abstract:This paper intends to compare the accuracy of the LD-Ⅱ and ADTD lightning location data.Based on the LD-Ⅱ and ADTD lightning location data from March to September of 2010, lightning characteristics in Anhui province was analyzed.The result shows that there are many differences in monthly variation, daily variation, lightning density and intensity of lightning current between the two lightning location systems.LD-Ⅱ has the longer observation time, while ADTD has a higher degree of accuracy in lightning density and intensity of lightning current.Compared with the data of lightning disaster, ADTD lightning location system is more accurate in lightning positioning.