Octane number prediction based on BP neural network and multiple linear regression
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TP183;TP273

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    Abstract:

    In order to reduce the sulfur and olefin and the loss of octane number so as to promote the clean production of gasoline,an octane number loss prediction model is established based on data accumulated by the S Zorb device.First,the Lasso is used to screen out the modeling variables,then the index factor contributions are calculated by the BP neural network,based on which 15 main variables are screened out to build the model.Second,four modeling approaches are compared and analyzed,which shows that the BP neural network has better prediction accuracy thus is more suitable to model the octane number loss.The ten-fold cross-validation produces the average MSE value of 0.027 193 and the average R2 value of 0.904 87,verifying the reliability of the model.Furthermore,the main variables are optimized and adjusted by multiple linear regression under the premise that the sulfur content is not greater than 5 μg/g.The results show that multiple variables need to be adjusted simultaneously to reduce the octane number loss by more than 30%.The multiple linear regression model has good prediction accuracy and can adjust main variables positively or negatively according to a certain proportion.The trajectories of octane number and sulfur content are also visualized in the paper.

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XU Meixian, ZHENG Yan, ZHOU Ruolan, ZHANG Ruyi. Octane number prediction based on BP neural network and multiple linear regression[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,2023,15(4):379-392

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  • Received:April 26,2022
  • Online: July 06,2023
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