Applicability of the tropical cyclone genesis potential index to the frequency variability of tropical cyclone in Indian Ocean
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    Abstract:

    The genesis potential index of the tropical cyclones in North and South Indian Oceans is calculated using monthly ERA5 reanalysis data from 1979-2019,and compared with the IBTrACS observations,in order to investigate the applicability of the genesis potential index to the study of the tropical cyclone characteristics in North and South Indian Oceans.It is found that the tropical cyclone genesis potential index can characterize the spatial distribution of tropical cyclones in North and South Indian Oceans,the bimodal structure of the seasonal variations of tropical cyclone frequency in North Indian Ocean,and the higher probability of tropical cyclone genesis in the South Indian Ocean than that in the North Indian Ocean.The latest IBTrACS v4.0 observations show that the annual number of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean has increased by an average of 1.3 per decade over the past 40 years,which is mainly from the tropical depressions and tropical storms,while the annual number of tropical cyclones in the South Indian Ocean has decreased by an average of 2.8 per decade.The genesis potential index of the tropical cyclone can well describe the upward trend of the tropical cyclone number in North Indian Ocean,but the depiction of the trend of the tropical cyclone number in South Indian Ocean is inconsistent with observations,which merits further investigation in the future.

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LIU Chunlei, FENG Xiaoli, GU Jianfeng, LIAO Xiaoqing, CAO Ning, XU Jianjun, XU Feng, ZHANG Yu. Applicability of the tropical cyclone genesis potential index to the frequency variability of tropical cyclone in Indian Ocean[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,2020,12(4):431-441

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  • Received:June 01,2020
  • Online: July 31,2020
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