Prediction and demonstration analysis for the trend of M≥6 earthquakes in the South Yellow Sea region
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    Abstract:

    The South Yellow Sea region is one of the most active areas with medium-and-strong earthquakes in the eastern part of China.According to the statistical analysis,the activity of M≥6 earthquakes in this region has shown an obvious commensurability and orderliness since 1846.The main orderly values are 74-75 a,57-58 a,11-12 a,and 5-6 a,of which 74-75 a and 57-58 a play an outstanding role in strong earthquake prediction.Under the guidance of the information forecasting theory proposed by Weng Wenbo,we construct and further optimize the 2D-and 3D-ordered network of M≥6 earthquakes.The structure and its prediction function for strong earthquakes are discussed in detail after reviewing and summing up the successful prediction for the M6.1 earthquake in the South Yellow Sea on November 9,1996.In the meanwhile,the trend prediction of M≥6 earthquakes in the future and demonstration analysis are studied on the basis of the ordered network structure and commensurable analysis.The results show that the first M≥6 earthquake in the next active episode will probably occur around 2053-2054;furthermore,the second one or strong earthquake swarm in the future will probably occur around 2058-2059.

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MEN Kepei. Prediction and demonstration analysis for the trend of M≥6 earthquakes in the South Yellow Sea region[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,2016,8(5):468-478

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History
  • Received:March 18,2015
  • Online: October 26,2016
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