Application of SVM method in weather forecasting during tropical cyclone process
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    Abstract:

    The strength and movement path of tropical cyclones will directly affect the changes of the ambient atmosphere in aspects of air pressure,temperature,dew point and other weather elements.To better understand the impact of tropical cyclones on climate of Haikou city,this paper collects the key factors of tropical cyclones affecting Haikou city,thus establishes the impact predictor pool,and forecasts the trends in precipitation,maximum wind speed and the average temperature based on the Support Vector Machines(SVM) method.The results show that this method generally works well in trend prediction of the three weather elements during tropical cyclone process affecting the Haikou city.But the method show some deviation in forecast accuracy for wind speed higher than 15m/s and rainfall greater than 200 mm,which may be due to the lack of some key factors in predictor pool and the averaging process in principle of SVM model.

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TANG Chi, FENG Wen, GUAN Manyuan, SHI Si, WU Wenjuan, WU Jiani. Application of SVM method in weather forecasting during tropical cyclone process[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,2015,7(5):458-462

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History
  • Received:January 23,2014
  • Online: October 22,2015
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