Nepal M 8.1 earthquake and the prediction for M≥8 earthquakes in west China
Author:
  • Article
  • | |
  • Metrics
  • |
  • Reference
  • |
  • Related
  • |
  • Cited by
  • | |
  • Comments
    Abstract:

    According to the statistical analysis,a total of 25 M≥8 earthquakes occurred in mainland China and nearby area from 1300 to 2015.The seismic activity of M≥8 earthquakes has showed an obvious self-organized orderliness.It should be remarked especially that,there were three ordered pairs of M≥8 earthquakes occurred in west China during 1902—2001,of which,the time interval in each pair of two earthquakes was four years.This is a unique and rare earthquake example in earthquake history of China and the whole world.In the guidance of the information forecasting theory of WENG Wenbo,based on previous research results,combining ordered analysis with complex network technology,we focus on the summary of the ordered network structure of M≥8 earthquakes,and add new information of three M≥8 earthquakes occurred in Nepal to further optimize network,hence construct the 2D-and 3D-ordered network structure of M≥8 earthquakes and make prediction research.The result shows,the occurrence of Nepal M8.1 earthquake in 2015 indicates the beginning of another M≥8 earthquake cycle.The strong earthquakes are suggested to happen near the Qinghai-Tibet plateau area and gradually shifted from south to north for the next several decades.The futrue ordered pair of M≥8 earthquakes are believed to happen around 2022 and 2026 in west China,as well as the single event around 2029 and 2045.

    Reference
    Related
    Cited by
Get Citation

MEN Kepei. Nepal M 8.1 earthquake and the prediction for M≥8 earthquakes in west China[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,2015,7(3):281-288

Copy
Share
Article Metrics
  • Abstract:
  • PDF:
  • HTML:
  • Cited by:
History
  • Received:May 10,2015
  • Online: June 26,2015
Article QR Code

Address:No. 219, Ningliu Road, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province

Postcode:210044

Phone:025-58731025