Ordered network structure of M≥6 strong earthquakes and its prediction in Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region
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    Abstract:

    The Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region is one of the key seismic monitoring & defence areas in the eastern part of China.Since 1846,M≥6 strong earthquakes have showed an obvious commensurability and orderliness in this region.The main orderly values are 74-75 a,57-58 a,11-12 a and 5-6 a,wherein 74-75 a and 57-58 a carries an outstanding predictive role.According to the information prediction theory of Weng Wenbo,we conceived the 2D-and 3D-ordered network structure of M≥6 strong earthquakes in the South Yellow Sea and the whole research region.Based on this,we analyzed and discussed the variation of seismicity in detail and also made trend prediction of M≥6 strong earthquakes in the future.The results showed that since 1998 it has entered into a new quiet episode which may continue until about year 2042;and the first M≥6 strong earthquake in the next active episode will probably occur around year 2053,with the likely location in the area of the South Yellow Sea;furthermore,the second and the third ones or strong earthquake swarm in the future will probably occur around year 2058 and 2070.

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MEN Kepei. Ordered network structure of M≥6 strong earthquakes and its prediction in Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,2014,6(3):268-274

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History
  • Received:January 12,2013
  • Online: June 25,2014
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