Study and prediction of climate warming impact on heating energy consumption in Qinghai plateau
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    Abstract:

    The impact of climate warming on energy consumed during heating period in Qinghai plateau during the past 50 years is studied in this paper,based on daily mean temperature data from 34 stations during 1961—2010.A model is established to predict the future heating energy consumption under medium greenhouse gas emission scenario (SRESA1B).Results show a significant warming trend took place in Qinghai plateau since 1998,and the average heating periods decreased by 9 days for the whole province.The heating degree-day decreased in all parts,especially in southwestern part of the province,with evident decline in heating strength.Theoretically,the heating strength decrease brought by climate warming is assumed to be 4.9%-15.3%,while the average energy saving in the whole province is 1.79 kg/m2 in standard coal.Under the medium greenhouse gas emission scenario (SRESA1B),the energy consumed during heating periods in future is predicted to decline obviously in Qinghai plateau,yet with great uncertainty.

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LIU Caihong, SU Wenjiang. Study and prediction of climate warming impact on heating energy consumption in Qinghai plateau[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,2013,5(6):494-500

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  • Received:April 16,2012
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