Integrated forecasting model for short-term traffic flow
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    Abstract:

    With the continuous increase of road vehicles,occasional congestion caused by traffic accidents seriously affect the commuting efficiency of traveler and the overall operation level of road network.Real-time and exact forecasting of short-term traffic flow volume is the key point to intelligent traffic system and precondition to solve the congestion situation by route guidance and clearing.According to the uncertain and non-linear features of traffic volume,a model integrated of the improved BP neural network and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is established to forecast the short-term traffic flow.The case application result shows that the combined model has an advantage over the single models in forecasting performance and forecasting accuracy.

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ZHANG Kai, LU Zouying. Integrated forecasting model for short-term traffic flow[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,2013,5(5):414-420

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  • Received:March 22,2012
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