Research on ordered network structure of M≥8 great earthquakes and its prediction in Mainland China
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    Abstract:

    China is one of the countries which have the most earthquake disasters in the world.A total of 23 M≥8 earthquakes occurred in Mainland China from 1303 to 2011.The seismic activity of M≥8 earthquakes has showed an obvious self-organized orderliness.The main ordered values are 252-258 a,108-112 a,94-98 a,44-47 a,24-25 a,16-19 a and 11-14 a.According to the information forecasting theory of WENG Wenbo and combining ordered analysis with complex network technology,we build the informational ordered network structure of M≥8 great earthquakes in Mainland China,and summarize the prediction research on two great earthquakes (the 2001 Kunlunshan M8.1 and the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake) during the beginning of the 21st century in western Mainland China.At last,we present new prediction opinion that the future M≥8 great earthquakes will probably occur in 2022,2026,2045 and 2065 pre and post in Mainland China.The results show that an M≥8 great earthquake can be predicted and the network feature is the formation mechanism of great earthquakes.Ordered network method produces satisfactory results in moderate and long term prediction for M≥8 great earthquakes.

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MEN Kepei. Research on ordered network structure of M≥8 great earthquakes and its prediction in Mainland China[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,2012,4(5):466-475

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  • Received:December 27,2011
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