Ordered network structure of M≥7 strong earthquakes and its prediction in northern Tibetan Plateau region
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    Abstract:

    The northern Tibetan Plateau region is a main seismic zone in west China.Since 1700,M≥7 strong earthquakes have showed an obvious commensurability and orderliness in this region.The main ordered values are 106-107 a,77-78 a、53-54 a,26-27 a,10-11 a and 3-4 a.According to the information forecasting theory of WENG Wenbo and combining ordered analysis with complex network technology,we try to explore the practical method for strong earthquake prediction with Chinese characteristics,and build informational ordered network structure of M≥7 strong earthquakes in the northern Tibetan Plateau.In this paper,we study into the prediction of 3 great earthquakes (the 2001 Kunlunshan M8.1,the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 and the 2010 Yushu M7.3 earthquake) based on the method of ordered network structure,and give many notorious earthquake examples in China and abroad.Meanwhile,the cause of formation about Wenchuan and Yushu earthquake have been discussed primarily.At last,we present a new prediction opinion that the future M≥7 strong earthquakes will probably occur in 2014—2015,2026—2027 and 2030 in this region.The results show that strong earthquake can be predicted and this method produces satisfactory results in moderate and long term prediction for strong earthquakes.

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MEN Kepei. Ordered network structure of M≥7 strong earthquakes and its prediction in northern Tibetan Plateau region[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,2012,4(4):307-315

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  • Received:November 13,2011
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