融合迁移学习和知识蒸馏的大时间尺度海表温度智能预测
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TP18;P731.31

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国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3008203)


Integrating transfer learning and knowledge distillation for intelligent prediction of sea surface temperature on large time scales
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    摘要:

    针对大时间尺度(如周、月)海表温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)数据的小样本特性导致模型泛化能力弱、预测精度低、模型参数复杂等问题,本文提出一种融合迁移学习和知识蒸馏的大时间尺度SST智能预测方法.首先,建立基于图卷积神经网络和双向长短时记忆网络相结合的源域SST预测模型,充分提取源域日尺度SST时空特征;然后,采用生成对抗网络进行特征对齐来完成模型迁移,以使得源域和目标域的特征分布趋于一致,提升模型在目标域上的适应性和预测性能;最后,建立基于多任务学习的蒸馏网络解决深度迁移网络参数多、时效性低的问题.实验结果表明,在不同时间尺度SST下,迁移学习相较于未引入该机制的模型,在均方根误差上至少降低7.00%,有效提升了小样本场景下的预测精度.多任务的知识蒸馏网络的网络参数较迁移后的深度网络分别减少88.21%和74.68%,提高了SST预测的时效性.

    Abstract:

    The limited sample size of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data on large time scales (e.g.,weekly or monthly) poses significant challenges,including weak model generalization,low prediction accuracy,and high model complexity.To address these issues,this paper proposes an intelligent prediction method for large-scale SST that integrates transfer learning and knowledge distillation.First,a source-domain SST prediction model is established by combining Graph Convolutional Neural Networks (GCNs) and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) networks to fully extract spatio-temporal features from daily-scale SST data.A Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) is then employed for feature alignment to facilitate domain adaptation,aligning the feature distributions of the source and target domains to enhance the model's predictive performance in the target domain.Finally,a multi-task learning-based knowledge distillation network is developed to mitigate the issues of high parameter redundancy and low computational efficiency in deep transferred networks.Experimental results demonstrate that,under various time-scale SST conditions,the proposed transfer learning approach achieves at least a 7.00% reduction in root mean square error compared to baseline models without this mechanism,effectively improving prediction accuracy in small-sample scenarios.Furthermore,the multi-task knowledge distillation network reduces the number of network parameters by 88.21% and 74.68% compared to the transferred deep network,thereby enhancing the timeliness of SST prediction.

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张凌珺,侯健敏,董昌明.融合迁移学习和知识蒸馏的大时间尺度海表温度智能预测[J].南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版),2026,18(4):510-521
ZHANG Lingjun, HOU Jianmin, DONG Changming. Integrating transfer learning and knowledge distillation for intelligent prediction of sea surface temperature on large time scales[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, 2026,18(4):510-521

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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-19
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-14
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