基于优化深度学习的有效波高双通道混合预测模型
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TP183;P731.33

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国家自然科学基金(62076136)


A dual-channel hybrid prediction model for significant wave height based on optimized deep learning
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    摘要:

    有效波高(Significant Wave Height,SWH)具有复杂的非线性动态特性,这使得对其精确预测成为一大挑战.时频分解技术是处理复杂非线性数据的有效手段,但现有方法未考虑SWH分解后分量的不同时频特性.因此,利用排列熵将集成经验模态分解(Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition,EEMD)后得到的SWH分量分为高、低频两类,根据其各自特性构建优化的长短时记忆-时间卷积网络(Long Short-Term Memory-Temporal Convolutional Network,LSTM-TCN)双通道时间特征提取模块,并考虑到不同分量预测值对最终SWH预测结果的影响不同,引入贝叶斯模型平均(Bayesian Model Averaging,BMA)法进行权重分配.最终,本文提出一种基于优化深度学习的SWH双通道混合预测模型.实验结果表明,与现有先进模型相比,该模型在1、3、6、12 h的SWH预测中,评价指标RMSE、MAE和MAPE显著降低,具备较好的精度和稳定性.

    Abstract:

    Significant Wave Height (SWH) exhibits complex nonlinear dynamic properties,posing significant challenges to its accurate prediction.Time-frequency decomposition is an effective approach to deal with such nonlinearities.However,existing methods fail to account for the distinct time-frequency characteristics of the SWH's decomposed components.Here,we employ permutation entropy to categorize SWH components,which are obtained via Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD),into high- and low-frequency groups,and construct an optimized Long Short-Term Memory-Temporal Convolutional Network (LSTM-TCN) based on their respective characteristics,forming a dual-channel temporal feature extraction module.Furthermore,since different component predictions contribute unequally to the final SWH prediction result,the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is introduced to assign adaptive weights.Finally,this paper proposes a dual-channel hybrid prediction model for SWH leveraging optimized deep learning.Experimental results show that,compared to state-of-the-art models,the proposed model achieves significant reductions in RMSE,MAE and MAPE across 1-,3-,6-,and 12-hour SWH predictions,with enhanced accuracy and stability.

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赵芮晗,闫加宁,韩莹.基于优化深度学习的有效波高双通道混合预测模型[J].南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版),2026,(3):340-351
ZHAO Ruihan, YAN Jianing, HAN Ying. A dual-channel hybrid prediction model for significant wave height based on optimized deep learning[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, 2026,(3):340-351

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  • 收稿日期:2024-10-18
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-06
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