基于ConvLSTM及双重注意力机制的2 m气温预报订正方法
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TP391.41;P457.3

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国家自然科学基金联合重点项目(U20B2061);国家自然科学基金(61773220);江苏省自然科学基金(BK20150523);国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0203301)


A 2 m temperature forecast correction method based on ConvLSTM and dual attention mechanism
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    摘要:

    为了降低2 m气温传统数值预报模型(GRAPES_GFS)的预测值和观测值之间的高偏差,提高预测精度,本文结合气象数值模式(GRAPES_GFS)格点资料以及对应的观测资料,提出一种基于卷积长短时记忆(ConvLSTM)网络并结合注意力机制的2 m气温预报订正模型.首先,由局部特征提取模块提取输入数据的局部浅层特征;其次,将提取到的特征图输入特征注意力模块,对数据的不同通道维度与不同空间维度赋予不同的权重,抑制与2 m气温相关性低的气象要素的权重,实现对2 m气温数据中高温地区的局部增强;最后,采用ConvLSTM网络捕获数据时间维度特征,同时输出预报订正结果.实验结果表明:本文所提模型在时效为12~36 h的2 m气温预报中,与GRAPES_GFS模式预报结果相比,各项数值评价指标均有改善,皮尔森相关系数从0.55左右提升到0.87左右,均方根误差从1.74~2.06 ℃降低到0.90~1.10 ℃,平均绝对误差从1.36~1.64 ℃降低到0.69~0.84 ℃.与主流订正模型相比,本文模型也取得了较好的订正效果.

    Abstract:

    In order to reduce the large deviations between predicted and observed values in the traditional numerical weather prediction model (GRAPES_GFS) for 2 m temperature and to improve forecast accuracy,this paper proposes a correction model based on a Convolution Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) network and attention mechanism,utilizing GRAPES_GFS grid data and corresponding observational data.The model consists of three main steps.First,shallow local features are extracted from the input data through a local feature extraction module.Second,the extracted feature maps are fed into a dual attention module,which assigns different weights to different channel and spatial dimensions of the data,suppresses the influence of meteorological elements weakly correlated with 2 m temperature,and enhances local features in high-temperature regions.Finally,a ConvLSTM network captures temporal dependencies in the data and outputs the corrected forecast.Experimental results show that,compared with the original GRAPES_GFS forecasts,the proposed model improves all evaluation metrics for 12- to 36-hour lead times in 2 m temperature prediction.The Pearson correlation coefficient increases from about 0.55 to approximately 0.87,the root mean squared error decreases from 1.74-2.06 ℃ to 0.90-1.10 ℃,and the mean absolute error decreases from 1.36-1.64 ℃ to 0.69-0.84 ℃.Moreover,the model outperforms other mainstream correction approaches.

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房善普,邱雨楠,陆振宇.基于ConvLSTM及双重注意力机制的2 m气温预报订正方法[J].南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版),2026,(3):331-339
FANG Shanpu, QIU Yunan, LU Zhenyu. A 2 m temperature forecast correction method based on ConvLSTM and dual attention mechanism[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, 2026,(3):331-339

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  • 收稿日期:2022-09-15
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-06
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