基于联邦学习和DAL策略的电力负荷预测
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TM715;TP18

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重庆市自然科学基金(CSTB2022NSCQ-MSX1231);重庆市高等教育教学改革研究项目(243400);国网重庆信通公司项目(SGCQXT00JSJS2400122)


Electric load forecasting based on federated learning and DAL strategy
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    摘要:

    针对传统电力负荷预测方法依赖单一区域数据训练模型,导致跨区域预测时泛化能力显著下降的问题,设计了一种基于时序卷积网络(Temporal Convolutional Network,TCN)、长短期记忆(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)网络和注意力机制的混合模型(TCN-LSTMs-Attention),并结合去中心化聚合学习(Decentralized Aggregation Learning,DAL)策略,通过在同一服务器上顺序训练来自不同区域的数据,构建多个子模型,最终得到可进行区域预测的全局模型.同时,结合动态学习率减半与参数重置机制,进一步加速模型收敛.基于第九届"中国电机工程杯"竞赛数据集的实验结果表明,相较于独立区域训练模型,所提方法在跨区域预测任务中均方误差、平均绝对误差、均方根误差和平均绝对百分比误差分别提升43.0%、29.5%、24.4%和35.4%,验证了其在高异质性负荷场景下的鲁棒性与工程实用性.

    Abstract:

    Electric load forecasting is a core foundation for power grid planning and operation. However,traditional methods rely on training models with data from a single region,resulting in a significant decline in generalization capability when applied to cross-regional forecasting. To address this issue,this paper proposes a hybrid model that integrates a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN),Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM),and an attention mechanism (TCN-LSTMs-Attention),combined with a Decentralized Aggregation Learning (DAL) strategy. In this framework,multiple sub-models are jointly trained to obtain a global model capable of cross-regional forecasting by sequentially training with data from different regions on the same server. Moreover,the proposed method incorporates a dynamic learning rate halving and parameter resetting mechanism to further accelerate model convergence. Experiments based on the dataset from the 9th China Electrical Engineering Cup Competition demonstrate that,compared to models trained independently on regional data,the proposed method improves Mean Squared Error (MSE),Mean Absolute Error (MAE),Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE),and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) by 43.0%,29.5%,24.4%,and 35.4%,respectively,in cross-regional forecasting tasks. These results validate the model's robustness and engineering practicality in high-heterogeneity load scenarios.

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周聪,李明,袁隆发,丁南威,铁瑞君,曾蒸.基于联邦学习和DAL策略的电力负荷预测[J].南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版),2026,(3):321-330
ZHOU Cong, LI Ming, YUAN Longfa, DING Nanwei, TIE Ruijun, ZENG Zheng. Electric load forecasting based on federated learning and DAL strategy[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, 2026,(3):321-330

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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-17
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-06
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