基于TTBiGRUA的碳价预测研究
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TP181;F832.5;X196

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国家社会科学基金(23BJY014);河南省高等学校哲学社会科学基础研究重大项目(2021JCZD01);河南省哲学社会科学规划年度项目(2022BJJ030)


Carbon price prediction via TTBiGRUA model
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    摘要:

    碳价格具有非线性、非平稳等复杂特征,其预测颇具挑战性.为了提高预测精度,提出一种结合时变滤波经验模态分解(Time-Varying Filter Empirical Mode Decomposition,TVFEMD)、样本熵(Sample Entropy,SE)、双向门控循环单元(Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit,BiGRU)和差分整合移动平均自回归(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model,ARIMA)的碳价预测模型TTBiGRUA.首先,通过TVFEMD将碳价格分解为不同频率的模态分量.其次,利用样本熵评估各分量复杂度,并采用K-means算法进行重构.随后,对重构后波动性最强的模态分量运用TVFEMD二次分解,以进一步提取特征并减少模态混叠.根据样本熵划分高频分量和低频分量.高频分量由BiGRU预测,低频分量则由ARIMA预测,最后将分量预测结果叠加得到碳价格最终预测结果.应用广东和湖北碳市场的实际碳价数据,使用5个评价指标和Diebold Mariano(DM)检验评估模型预测的有效性和鲁棒性.结果表明,所提出模型预测精度优于其他基准对比模型.

    Abstract:

    Given the complex characteristics of carbon price series,such as nonlinearity and non-smoothness,the prediction is quite challenging.Here,we propose TTBiGRUA as a carbon price prediction model that combines Time-Varying Filter Empirical Mode Decomposition (TVFEMD),Sample Entropy (SE),Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BiGRU) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA).First,the carbon price series were decomposed into mode components with different frequencies by TVFEMD;then,the sample entropy was used to evaluate the complexity of each component,and the K-means algorithm was applied for reconstruction.Subsequently,secondary TVFEMD was performed on the most volatile reconstructed mode components to further extract features and reduce modal aliasing.The components were separated into high-frequency and low-frequency categories according to the sample entropy values.The high-frequency components were predicted by BiGRU,while the low-frequency components were predicted by ARIMA,and the final prediction results were obtained by superimposing all component predictions.Using actual carbon price data from Guangdong and Hubei carbon markets in China,we evaluated the model's predictive validity and robustness through five evaluation indicators and the Diebold-Mariano (DM) test.Results show that the proposed model outperforms other benchmark comparison models in predictive accuracy.

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姚远,李晨硕.基于TTBiGRUA的碳价预测研究[J].南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版),2025,17(4):467-477
YAO Yuan, LI Chenshuo. Carbon price prediction via TTBiGRUA model[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, 2025,17(4):467-477

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  • 收稿日期:2024-10-23
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-07-11
  • 出版日期: 2025-07-28
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