基于自适应VMD-LSTM的超短期风电功率预测
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TM614;TP183

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上海市自然科学基金(11ZR1413800)


Ultra-short-term wind power prediction based on adaptive VMD-LSTM
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    摘要:

    针对风电功率波动性较强和预测精度较低的问题,提出一种改进蜣螂优化算法(Logistic-T-Dung Beetle Optimizer,LTDBO)优化变分模态分解(Variational Mode Decomposition,VMD)参数和LTDBO算法优化长短期记忆网络(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)超参数的混合短期风电功率预测模型.首先以平均包络谱峭度作为适应度函数,利用LTDBO算法对VMD分解层数和惩罚因子进行寻优,然后使用VMD对数据清洗后的风电序列进行分解,得到不同频率的平稳的固有模态分量(Intrinsic Mode Function,IMF),并将各IMF输入由LTDBO进行超参数寻优的LSTM进行预测,最后将各IMF预测值进行叠加重构,得到最终结果.实验结果表明:LTDBO算法可以找到VMD和LSTM的最优超参数组合,LTDBO-VMD-LTDBO-LSTM组合模型在风电功率预测领域具有较好的预测精度和鲁棒性.

    Abstract:

    To address the issues of strong fluctuation of wind power and low prediction accuracy,this paper proposes a hybrid ultra-short-term wind power prediction model that utilizes an improved Dung Beetle Optimizer,namely Logistic-T-Dung Beetle Optimizer (LTDBO),to optimize both the parameters of Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) and the hyperparameters of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network.Firstly,with the average envelope spectral kurtosis serving as the fitness function,the LTDBO algorithm is employed to optimize the decomposition layers and penalty factors of VMD.Subsequently,the cleaned wind power sequences are decomposed via VMD to obtain the stationary Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) of varying frequencies.Each IMF is then input into the LSTM network,whose hyperparameters have been optimized by LTDBO,for prediction.Finally,the predicted values of all IMFs are superimposed and reconstructed to obtain the final prediction.Experimental results show that the LTDBO algorithm can effectively identify the optimal combination of VMD and LSTM hyperparameters,and the combined model of LTDBO-VMD-LTDBO-LSTM exhibits superior prediction accuracy and robustness in the field of wind power prediction.

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王迪,傅晓锦,杜诗琪.基于自适应VMD-LSTM的超短期风电功率预测[J].南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版),2025,17(1):74-87
WANG Di, FU Xiaojin, DU Shiqi. Ultra-short-term wind power prediction based on adaptive VMD-LSTM[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, 2025,17(1):74-87

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2024-04-04
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-02-22

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