基于自适应时序聚合的电氢能源系统风险防御规划方法
作者:
作者单位:

1.中国电建集团吉林省电力勘测设计院有限公司;2.北京交通大学

基金项目:

中国电力建设集团有限公司总部项目(DJ-ZDXM-2021-23)


Risk Defense Planning Method for Electro-Hydrogen Energy Systems Based on Adaptive Time-Series Aggregation
Author:
Affiliation:

1.JiLin Electric Power Engineering Co.,LtD;2.Beijing Jiaotong University

Fund Project:

Headquarters Project of China Electric Power Construction Group Co., Ltd(DJ-ZDXM-2021-23)

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    摘要:

    电氢能源系统能够实现电能和氢能的互联,是消纳间歇性可再生能源发电、实现双碳目标的重要措施。同时,长周期储氢系统由于能够补偿可再生能源的中长期波动而引发广泛关注。然而,由于涉及电氢能源系统的优化规划模型需要覆盖长周期储氢的完整充放周期,通常受到模型复杂度的限制。因此,本文提出了一种基于自适应时序聚合的电氢能源系统风险防御规划方法。首先,根据可再生能源和负荷需求的预测值,设计自适应时序聚合算法,降低运行模拟的变量维度;其次,引入条件风险价值理论,采用多元高斯分布对可再生能源和电负荷波动进行建模,用于量化系统潜在的运行风险;最后,兼顾系统投资和运行成本,以年化总成本最小化为优化目标,构建基于自适应时序聚合的电氢能源系统优化规划模型。算例结果表明,本文所提方法能够同时考虑长/短周期储氢的调节能力以及潜在运行风险,提升了系统风险防御能力并且有效平衡了系统潜在运行风险和投资成本。

    Abstract:

    Electric-hydrogen energy systems, which enable the interconnection of electricity and hydrogen, are an important measure for the consumption of intermittent renewable energy generation and the achievement of dual-carbon goals. Meanwhile, long-period hydrogen storage systems have attracted widespread attention due to their ability to compensate for medium- and long-term fluctuations in renewable energy. However, risk defense planning models involving electric-hydrogen energy systems are usually limited by model complexity as they must cover the complete charging and discharging cycles of long-cycle hydrogen storage. Therefore, this paper proposes a risk defense planning method for electric-hydrogen energy systems based on adaptive time-series aggregation, in which, firstly, an adaptive time-series aggregation algorithm is designed based on the predicted values of renewable energy sources and load demand to reduce the variable dimensions of the operational simulation; secondly, conditional value-at-risk theory is introduced to model renewable energy sources and electric load fluctuations using multivariate Gaussian distributions, which is used to quantify the potential operational risks of the system; Finally, taking into account the system investment and operation cost, an optimal planning model for electric-hydrogen energy system based on adaptive time-series aggregation is constructed with the optimization objective of minimizing the total annualized cost. Example results show that the proposed method can simultaneously consider the adjustment ability of long/short cycle hydrogen storage and the potential operating risks, improve the risk defense ability of the system, and effectively balance the system"s potential operating risks and investment costs.

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席皛,高阳,龙施雨,盛康玲,王小君.基于自适应时序聚合的电氢能源系统风险防御规划方法[J].南京信息工程大学学报,,():

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2024-11-13
  • 最后修改日期:2025-02-20
  • 录用日期:2025-02-21

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