基于改进Stacking与误差修正的短期太阳辐照度预测
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TP391;TM615

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国家重点研发计划(2018YFC0116100);湖北省重点研发计划(2020BAB114);湖北省教育厅科学研究计划重点项目(D20211402)


Short-term solar irradiance prediction based on improved Stacking and error correction
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    摘要:

    为提高光伏电站辐照度预测的准确性和可靠性,提出一种基于改进Stacking集成学习与误差修正的短期辐照度预测模型.首先使用梯度提升决策树(Gradient Boosting Decision Tree,GBDT)对原始数据集进行特征筛选,清除冗余特征,提高预测精度和运算效率;然后建立改进Stacking辐照度预测模型,根据K折交叉验证下初级层不同预测模型所表现出预测准确度的差异性,对预测结果进行赋权,并对Stacking第一层输入第二层的训练集数据采用Box-Cox变换处理,以提高预测的正态性和同方差性;最后提取历史预测误差数据,采用随机森林(Random Forest,RF)构造误差模型,进一步提高预测精度.实验结果表明,该模型相比传统模型和经典Stacking模型其预测性能有了较大的提升.

    Abstract:

    To improve the accuracy and reliability of solar irradiance prediction for photovoltaic power system, we propose a model to forecast short-term solar irradiance based on improved Stacking ensemble learning and error correction.First, the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) is used to perform feature selection and remove redundant characteristics of original data set, thus increase prediction accuracy and computing efficiency.Then, an improved Stacking irradiance prediction model is established.In accordance with the difference in prediction accuracy of prediction models in the primary layer under K-fold cross-validation, the prediction results are weighted, and the Box-Cox is employed to transform and process the training set data input from the first layer to the second layer of Stacking, so as to increase the normality and homoscedasticity of prediction.Finally, the historical prediction error data are extracted, and Random Forest is applied to construct an error model to further improve the prediction accuracy.The experimental results show that, compared with traditional models and classic Stacking models, the proposed method significantly improves the prediction performance on solar irradiance.

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王珊珊,吴霓,何嘉文,朱威.基于改进Stacking与误差修正的短期太阳辐照度预测[J].南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版),2023,15(6):684-691
WANG Shanshan, WU Ni, HE Jiawen, ZHU Wei. Short-term solar irradiance prediction based on improved Stacking and error correction[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, 2023,15(6):684-691

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  • 收稿日期:2023-02-10
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-12-15
  • 出版日期: 2023-11-28

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