基于误差修正和VMD-ICPA-LSSVM的短期风速预测建模
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东华理工大学理学院

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TP18???

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(71961001), 东华理工大学研究生创新(DHYC-202225).


Short term wind speed prediction modeling based on error correction and VMD-ICPA-LSSVM
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East China University of Technology

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The National Natural Science Foundation of China (71961001) , East China University of Technology Graduate Innovation Fund Project(DHYC-202225).

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    摘要:

    精准的风速预测是将风能大规模应用到电力系统中的关键,而风速序列的随机性和波动性等特点使得风速预测难度增加。为增强风速序列的可预测性,采用Logistic混沌映射策略、自适应参数调整策略以及引入变异策略对食肉植物算法(CPA)进行改进,并提出了基于误差修正和VMD-ICPA-LSSVM的短期风速预测模型。首先将气象因子作为最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)的输入对风速进行预测,获得误差序列。再利用K-L散度自适应地确定变分模态分解(VMD)的参数,并对误差序列进行分解。结合改进食肉植物算法(ICPA)优化LSSVM可调参数的方法来预测分解的子序列。叠加各子序列预测结果后对原始预测序列进行误差修正,进而得到最终风速预测值。实验结果表明,与其他模型相比,该模型有着更好的预测精度和泛化性能。

    Abstract:

    Accurate wind speed prediction is the key to large-scale application of wind energy in power systems, and the randomness and volatility of wind speed sequences make wind speed prediction more difficult. To enhance the predictability of wind speed sequences, a Logistic chaotic mapping strategy, adaptive parameter adjustment strategy, and the introduction of mutation strategy were used to improve the Carnivorous Plant Algorithm (CPA). A short-term wind speed prediction model based on error correction and VMD-ICPA-LSSVM was proposed. Firstly, meteorological factors are used as inputs for least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) to predict wind speed and obtain an error sequence. Then, K-L divergence is used to adaptively determine the parameters of Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) and decompose the error sequence. Combining the Improved Carnivorous Plant Algorithm (ICPA) to optimize the adjustable parameters of LSSVM to predict the decomposed subsequences. After stacking the prediction results of each obtain the final wind speed prediction value. The experimental results show that subsequence, error correction is performed on the original prediction sequence to compared with other models, this model has better prediction accuracy and generalization performance.

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钟琳,颜七笙.基于误差修正和VMD-ICPA-LSSVM的短期风速预测建模[J].南京信息工程大学学报,,():

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  • 收稿日期:2023-04-21
  • 最后修改日期:2023-06-08
  • 录用日期:2023-06-14
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