基于误差修正的极端天气下风速预测
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1.国网河南省电力公司电力科学研究院;2.华北电力大学 能源动力与机械工程学院;3.华北电力大学

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国家电网有限公司科技指南项目(5400-202199555A-0-5-ZN)


Wind speed prediction in extreme weather based on error correction
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Affiliation:

1.State Grid Henan Electric Power Research Institute;2.North China Electric Power University

Fund Project:

Science and Technology Project of State Grid Corporation of China(5400-202199555A-0-5-ZN)

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    摘要:

    精确地预测极端天气下的风速能为配电网防灾抗灾提供重要的指导作用。本文提出基于时间卷积网络(Temporal Convolutional Networks,TCN)与双向长短期记忆网络(Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory,BiLSTM)和误差修正的组合模型对极端天气下的风速进行预测。首先对天气数据进行预处理,用TCN提取多特征数据的时间序列特性,将提取信息输入到BiLSTM中进行风速预测。为进一步提高预测精度,引入变分模态分解(Variational Mode Decomposition,VMD)对误差序列进行分解,分别对分解后的误差子序列构建BiLSTM模型进行误差预测,用误差预测值对风速预测值进行误差修正。结合河南省某地实测天气数据进行实验,仿真结果验证了所提方法能有效预测风速,并在极端天气发生时,对风速具有较高的预测精度。

    Abstract:

    Accurate prediction of wind speed in extreme weather can provide important guidance for disaster prevention and resistance of the distribution network. This paper proposes a method based on temporal convolutional network (TCN) and Bi-directional Long Short Term Memory(BiLSTM)and error correction model for wind speed prediction in extreme weather. Firstly, the weather data is preprocessed. The time series characteristics of multi-feature data are extracted by TCN, and the extracted information is input into BiLSTM for wind speed prediction. In order to further improve the prediction accuracy, variational mode decomposition (VMD) is introduced to decompose the error sequence, and constructing BiLSTM models for the decomposed error subsequences respectively to perform error prediction. Then the error prediction value is used to correct the wind speed prediction value. Combined with the measured weather data in a certain place in Henan Province, the simulation results verified that the proposed method can effectively predict wind speed and has a high prediction accuracy when extreme weather occurs.

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刘善峰,李 哲,陈锦鹏,卢 明,向 玲.基于误差修正的极端天气下风速预测[J].南京信息工程大学学报,,():

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  • 收稿日期:2022-12-06
  • 最后修改日期:2023-01-08
  • 录用日期:2023-02-12
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