全球升温1.5和2℃时中国特困区干旱变化特征研究
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P467

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国家自然科学基金(42071024,42005126,41571494);江苏省博士后基金(2019K096);中国博士后科学基金(2020M671536);南京信息工程大学人才启动基金


Projected drought risk in poverty-stricken areas of China with CMIP6 models under SSPs-RCPs scenarios at 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ warmer levels
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    摘要:

    基于15个CMIP6全球模式在4个共享社会经济路径及典型浓度路径的组合情景(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5)下的模拟结果,对全球升温1.5和2℃目标下中国连片特困区干旱频次、强度和持续时间的变化特征进行了分析.结果表明:1)在全球升温1.5和2℃时,特困区年均温较基准期分别平均增加约1.1和1.8℃,快于全球升温速率,年降水增幅明显,在特困区西北部尤为显著;2)升温1.5℃时,特困区平均干旱强度由基准期的轻微干旱转变为中等干旱,面积占比74%地区的干旱频次减少,面积占比61%地区的干旱持续时间缩短;3)升温2℃时,特困区干旱强度仍以中等干旱为主,干旱频次整体上保持减少,部分地区减少最多可达0.6次/a,但极端干旱事件发生概率增加,干旱持续时间有南部增加和北部减少两极化的发展趋势,面积占比约55%地区的干旱持续时间预计减少1.3个月;4)全球升温从1.5℃增加到2℃时,特困区干旱变化特征在空间上存在相似性,干旱频次和持续时间在南部区域均表现为增长、北部区域为减少,干旱强度则在特困区大部分地区均有增强.相较于升温1.5℃,升温2℃时,特困区很可能将面临更大的干旱风险,将全球升温控制在1.5℃以内能有效减少干旱事件对特困区的打击.

    Abstract:

    Findings confirm that poor people may be more vulnerable to climate change.The huge socioeconomic costs of droughts make themselves a crucial target for impact assessments of climate change scenarios.Based on outputs from fifteen CMIP6 climate models under the four latest SSP-RCP scenarios (SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5),drought characteristics (frequency,intensity and duration) at 1.5 and 2 ℃ warming levels were analyzed over the poverty-stricken areas of China.Results show that:(1) Relative to the baseline period (1995-2014),the annual mean temperature in poverty-stricken areas will increase by 1.1 and 1.8 ℃ at 1.5 and 2 ℃ global warming,respectively,which is faster than the global warming rate.The annual precipitation will also increase significantly,especially in north-west of poverty-stricken areas;(2) Relative to the baseline period,drought intensity will increase from slightly dryness to moderate dryness at the global warming of 1.5 ℃.However,most regions will see a decrease trend in both drought frequency (74% of whole region) and duration (61% of whole region).(3) At the global warming level of 2 ℃,drought intensity will still remain a moderate level,while drought frequency may keep decreasing.In some areas,the frequency is possible to decrease by 0.6 times annually.The drought duration tends to increase in the south and decrease in the north,which is expected to decrease by 1.3 months in some places (55% of whole region).(4) When facing the additional global warming of 0.5 ℃,there are spatial similarities in the change of drought characteristics.The frequency and duration will both increase in southern region and decrease in northern region,while the intensity will increase in most regions.Our study suggests that limiting anthropogenic warming to 1.5 ℃,as aspired by the Paris Climate Agreement,may have benefits for future drought risk alleviation over the poverty-stricken areas of China.

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王雪晴,李瑷蔚,邵晓华,高淑媛,林镔雷,杨陈心怡,姜彤.全球升温1.5和2℃时中国特困区干旱变化特征研究[J].南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版),2022,14(2):186-196
WANG Xueqing, LI Aiwei, SHAO Xiaohua, GAO Shuyuan, LIN Binlei, CHEN Xinyi, JIANG Tong. Projected drought risk in poverty-stricken areas of China with CMIP6 models under SSPs-RCPs scenarios at 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ warmer levels[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, 2022,14(2):186-196

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  • 收稿日期:2021-01-29
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-04-27
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