近30年色林错湖面变化特征及其对气候变化的响应
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1.南京信息工程大学应用气象学院;2.南京信息工程大学江苏省农业气象重点实验室

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TV11;TV124

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(4207733)


Variation characteristics of lake level in Selinco and its response to climate change in recent 30 years
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1.School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology;2.Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

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    摘要:

    为了探讨气候变化对高原湖色林错湖面面积变化的影响,本文基于1988-2020年Landsat卫星遥感影像资料,用最大似然法的方法提取色林错水体信息,采用线性回归及M-K检验法分析了色林错湖面面积及其流域内温度、降水和积雪深度等气候因子变化特征,并用皮尔逊相关分析(Person correlations)法探讨了湖面面积与气象因子之间的相关性。结果表明,近30年色林错湖面面积增加了650.70km2,增长速率为255.10km2/10a。色林错湖面扩张存在着明显的空间差异,湖面向南、向北扩展比较明显;色林错流域年平均气温及降水量呈显著上升趋势(p<0.05),而积雪深度呈显著下降的趋势(p<0.05),其中增温速率为0.50℃/10a,降水量增加速率为17.32mm/10a,积雪深度递减率为0.65cm/10a;色林错湖面面积的变化与该流域气温的升高以及冷季积雪深度的降低具有极显著相关性(p<0.001),气温升高使得色林错上游的冰雪融水增加是色林错湖面面积增大的主要原因。

    Abstract:

    In order to explore the impact of climate change on the lake area of Silingco, this paper based on Landsat satellite remote sensing image data(1988-2020), the information on the lake area of Silingco was obtained by using the method of maximum likelihood method, then the change characteristics of the lake area and climate were analyzed according to the information on the lake area and basin meteorological data using Mann-Kendall tests and linear regression. The correlation between the lake area and the meteorological factors was also analyzed using Pearson correlation. The results showed that, in the past 30 years, the lake area of Silingco increased by 650.70 km2 at the rate of 255.10km2/10a. The northern part and southern part of the lake changed obviously. The mean annual temperature and precipitation increased significantly during 1985-2020 (p < 0.05) and the mean maximum snow depth decreased significantly (p < 0.05),and the change rate was 0.50°C/10a for temperature,17.32mm/10a for precipitation and 0.65cm/10a for the maximum depth of snowcover, the changes of lake area increased significantly with both the rise of air temperature in the basin and decreasing maximum depth of snow cover in the cold season(p<0.001), therefore, the main reason for the lake's water area expansion of Silingco was the rise of the air temperature which led to the increase of water supply to Silingco mainlyfrom snow and ice meltwater.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-12-31
  • 最后修改日期:2022-03-01
  • 录用日期:2022-03-04
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