中国区域性大气加权平均温度线性模型精度评估
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P228.4;P423

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自然资源部海洋环境探测技术与应用重点实验室开放基金(MESTA-2020-B011);南京信息工程大学人才启动基金(2020R053);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF202045)


On the accuracy of regional weighted mean temperature linear models over China
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    摘要:

    以欧洲中期天气预报中心的再分析资料ERA5为参考数据,评估由探空数据建立的中国区域88个单站大气加权平均温度(Tm)与地表气温(Ts)线性关系模型的精度.各站Tm-Ts线性模型计算的Tm(计算值)与ERA5 气压层数据积分所得的Tm(参考值)间偏差均方根值(RMSE)为1.8~5.5 K.不同站模型计算值与参考值间存在-1.22~4.54 K 的系统性偏差,且绝大多数测站(82个站)系统性偏差为正值,即模型计算值总体上大于参考值.补偿各站系统性偏差后,模型计算值与参考值间RMSE降为1.5~3.5 K.与使用中国区域统一模型相比,使用单站模型平均能提高0.6 K的Tm计算精度,尤其在中国西部、西北和内蒙区域,精度提高可达1~3.9 K.对所有测站模型计算值和参考值间偏差时序进行分析,发现超过半数测站的偏差存在明显季节性变化.

    Abstract:

    We used the ERA5 data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts to evaluate the accuracy of regional weighted mean temperature (Tm) linear models over China.These models were derived from historical radiosonde data of 88 Chinese stations.For these stations,the root mean square errors (RMSEs) between single-station model derived Tm and ERA Tm are 1.8-5.5 K,and -1.22-4.54 K of which are system biases.For 82 out of the total 88 stations,the system biases are positive,indicating that the model derived values are generally larger than ERA Tm.The RMSEs can be reduced to 1.5-3.5 K after removal of the system biases.On average,the RMSE of Tm from single-station model is smaller than that from the unified model by 0.6 K,suggesting that single-station models are generally more accurate than the unified model.In western China,northwestern China and Inner Mongolia,the accuracy can be improved by 1-3.9 K using single station models compared with the unified model.Time series of the biases between model derived Tm and ERA Tm show obvious seasonal cycles for over half of the stations.

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王明华,曹云昌,梁宏,涂满红,刘志刚.中国区域性大气加权平均温度线性模型精度评估[J].南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版),2021,13(2):161-169
WANG Minghua, CAO Yunchang, LIANG Hong, TU Manhong, LIU Zhigang. On the accuracy of regional weighted mean temperature linear models over China[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, 2021,13(2):161-169

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  • 收稿日期:2021-01-15
  • 在线发布日期: 2021-05-21

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