Abstract:Based on the climate simulations from 8 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models, their simulation capabilities for air temperature in Guizhou have been examined by using Taylor diagram for period of 1986-2005.Future changes in extreme temperature events under the RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios with the simple multi-model ensemble method are presented for the 21st century over Guizhou.Results show that the simple multi-model ensemble method from the 8 CMIP5 modes can well simulate the spatial distribution of daily average temperature, daily minimum temperature and daily maximum temperature, which are necessary to compute the indexes of extreme temperature events.Project results show that in the 21st century, Guizhou's maximum temperature days (SU), values of extreme minimum temperature (TNN), and days of growing season length (GSL) are likely to increase;while the frost days (FD) are likely to decrease;moreover, the increasing and decreasing trends are more obvious with more gas emission.Relative to period of 1986-2005, the linear variation trends of Guizhou's SU, TNN, FD and GSL during 2006-2099 are likely to be 8.06-1.30 d/(10 a), 0.49-0.07℃/(10 a), -4.99-0.97 d/(10 a), and 3.33-0.04 d/(10 a), respectively, under the RCPs scenarios.