南黄海海域M≥6强震趋势预测及其论证分析研究
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Prediction and demonstration analysis for the trend of M≥6 earthquakes in the South Yellow Sea region
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    摘要:

    南黄海地区是我国东部中强地震活动最为活跃的地区之一,自1846年以来,该研究区M≥6强震活动具有显著的可公度性和有序性,其主要有序值为74~75 a、57~58 a、11~12 a和5~6 a,其中74~75 a和57~58 a具有突出的预测作用.根据翁文波信息预测理论,在回顾总结成功预测1996年11月9日南黄海6.1级强震的基础上,深入研究了南黄海海域M≥6强震活动的可公度性及其预测功能,构建并完善了南黄海海域M≥6强震的二维和三维有序网络结构,对该区未来M≥6强震趋势进行了预测,并对预测的可能性与合理性进行了论证分析.研究结论表明:南黄海海域未来新一轮强震活跃幕的首次M≥6强震将发生在2053-2054年前后,未来第2次M≥6强震或强震群可能发生在2058-2059年前后.

    Abstract:

    The South Yellow Sea region is one of the most active areas with medium-and-strong earthquakes in the eastern part of China.According to the statistical analysis,the activity of M≥6 earthquakes in this region has shown an obvious commensurability and orderliness since 1846.The main orderly values are 74-75 a,57-58 a,11-12 a,and 5-6 a,of which 74-75 a and 57-58 a play an outstanding role in strong earthquake prediction.Under the guidance of the information forecasting theory proposed by Weng Wenbo,we construct and further optimize the 2D-and 3D-ordered network of M≥6 earthquakes.The structure and its prediction function for strong earthquakes are discussed in detail after reviewing and summing up the successful prediction for the M6.1 earthquake in the South Yellow Sea on November 9,1996.In the meanwhile,the trend prediction of M≥6 earthquakes in the future and demonstration analysis are studied on the basis of the ordered network structure and commensurable analysis.The results show that the first M≥6 earthquake in the next active episode will probably occur around 2053-2054;furthermore,the second one or strong earthquake swarm in the future will probably occur around 2058-2059.

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引用本文

门可佩.南黄海海域M≥6强震趋势预测及其论证分析研究[J].南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版),2016,8(5):468-478
MEN Kepei. Prediction and demonstration analysis for the trend of M≥6 earthquakes in the South Yellow Sea region[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, 2016,8(5):468-478

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  • 收稿日期:2015-03-18
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  • 在线发布日期: 2016-10-26
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