基于T639数值预报产品的气温本地化应用及检验
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2011年度江苏省青年气象科研基金(Q201116)


Localized temperature forecast technique based on T639 numerical forecast product
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    摘要:

    基于T639数值预报产品下发的多个物理量资料,利用多元回归方法,开展本地化的分县气温客观预报方法研究,结合常规气象观测资料、美国NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°网格点逐6 h再分析资料,开展业务应用并进行了效果检验,得出以下结论:最低气温预报准确率要好于最高气温,同时夏季的气温预报也明显好于其他季节;在最高气温中对扬中的预报准确率高于其他站点,在最低气温中对丹阳的预报效果相对比较好;客观预报方法存在明显的系统性负偏差,通过使用每个预报时效预报误差的7 d滑动平均进行订正,结果表明通过订正,预报效果有所提高,特别是最高气温订正效果较明显;通过主客观预报准确率的对比分析,发现虽然客观预报对最高气温的预报效果比较差,但是在气温趋势预报上具有一定的参考价值;最低气温客观预报准确率明显高于江苏省的平均水平,和主观预报相比,虽然仍然低于主观预报水平,但是差距不大,基本上可以替代主观预报;分县气温客观预报方法对高温、寒潮等灾害性天气具有一定的预报能力,但是和实况相比,预报强度偏弱.

    Abstract:

    Based on multiple physical quantity data issued by the T639 numerical forecast product, the localized temperature forecasting equations for counties and cities are established using multiple regression method, which are applied to forecast temperature in Zhenjiang of Jiangsu province.Combined with conventional meteorological observation data and the 6 h reanalysis data of United States NCEP/NCAR1 in 1°×1° grid point, the localized temperature forecast results are comparatively tested and analyzed.The results indicate that the proposed temperature forecast technique based on T639 is more accurate in minimum temperature prediction than in maximum temperature prediction, and more accurate in summer temperature forecast than in other seasons.Yangzhong and Danyang have the most accurate prediction result in maximum temperature and minimum temperature, respectively, compared with other counties or cities in Zhenjiang.Systemic negative deviation existed in objective forecast methods, which can be corrected through the use of seven day moving average of prediction error for corresponding forecast time-length.The correction results show that the prediction performance is improved, especially the maximum temperature prediction.The comparative analysis between subjective and objective prediction methods show that the objective one is weak in maximum temperature forecast, yet is of some value in temperature trend forecasting;the objective one is roughly similar in prediction accuracy for minimum temperature and thus can replace the subjective forecast.The objective prediction method in county level is valuable for forecast of disastrous weathers like high temperature and cold wave, yet is still weak in forecast performance compared with real-time weather data.

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孙翠梅,沈兴建,马俊峰,田永飞,孔启亮,孙慧.基于T639数值预报产品的气温本地化应用及检验[J].南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版),2015,7(4):374-379
SUN Cuimei, SHEN Xingjian, MA Junfeng, TIAN Yongfei, KONG Qiliang, SUN Hui. Localized temperature forecast technique based on T639 numerical forecast product[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, 2015,7(4):374-379

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  • 收稿日期:2013-01-25
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  • 在线发布日期: 2015-08-18
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