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尼泊尔8.1级大震与中国大陆西部8级大震预测研究
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Nepal M 8.1 earthquake and the prediction for M≥8 earthquakes in west China
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    摘要:

    自1300年以来的715 a间,中国大陆及其邻区共发生M≥8大震25次,呈现出显著的自组织有序性.特别是从1902年到2001年的100 a间,中国大陆西部地区发生3对前后间隔4 a的8级大震有序对.基于信息预测理论,在对中国大陆8级大震有序网络构建及其总结研究的基础上,补充尼泊尔3次8级大震新信息:2015年8.1级、1934年8.1级和1833年8级大震,进一步优化完善并构建8级大震二维与三维有序网络结构,并由此对未来8级大震进行预测.研究结果表明:2015年尼泊尔8.1级大震的发生,标志着新一轮8级大震活动的开始,未来数十年内大震强震将在青藏高原地区由南向北迁移发生,2022与2026年前后中国大陆西部将发生新的8级大震有序对,2029、2045年前后仍有可能发生8级大震.

    Abstract:

    According to the statistical analysis,a total of 25 M≥8 earthquakes occurred in mainland China and nearby area from 1300 to 2015.The seismic activity of M≥8 earthquakes has showed an obvious self-organized orderliness.It should be remarked especially that,there were three ordered pairs of M≥8 earthquakes occurred in west China during 1902—2001,of which,the time interval in each pair of two earthquakes was four years.This is a unique and rare earthquake example in earthquake history of China and the whole world.In the guidance of the information forecasting theory of WENG Wenbo,based on previous research results,combining ordered analysis with complex network technology,we focus on the summary of the ordered network structure of M≥8 earthquakes,and add new information of three M≥8 earthquakes occurred in Nepal to further optimize network,hence construct the 2D-and 3D-ordered network structure of M≥8 earthquakes and make prediction research.The result shows,the occurrence of Nepal M8.1 earthquake in 2015 indicates the beginning of another M≥8 earthquake cycle.The strong earthquakes are suggested to happen near the Qinghai-Tibet plateau area and gradually shifted from south to north for the next several decades.The futrue ordered pair of M≥8 earthquakes are believed to happen around 2022 and 2026 in west China,as well as the single event around 2029 and 2045.

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门可佩.尼泊尔8.1级大震与中国大陆西部8级大震预测研究[J].南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版),2015,7(3):281-288
MEN Kepei. Nepal M 8.1 earthquake and the prediction for M≥8 earthquakes in west China[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, 2015,7(3):281-288

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  • 收稿日期:2015-05-10
  • 在线发布日期: 2015-06-26

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