江苏—南黄海地区M≥6强震有序网络结构及其预测研究
作者:

Ordered network structure of M≥6 strong earthquakes and its prediction in Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region
Author:
  • 摘要
  • | |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • | |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    江苏—南黄海地区是我国东部地震重点监视防御区之一,自1846年以来,该研究区M≥6强震活动具有显著的可公度性和有序性,其主要有序值为74~75 a、57~58 a、11~12 a和5~6 a,其中74~75 a和57~58 a具有突出的预测作用.根据翁文波信息预测理论,构建了该研究区全区和南黄海海域M≥6强震的二维和三维有序网络结构,据此分析讨论了该区地震活动的分期,并对未来M≥6强震趋势进行了预测.研究结论表明:该区从1998年起进入新一轮平静幕,此幕可能持续到2042年前后;该区下次活跃幕的首次M≥6强震可能发生在2053年前后,地点很可能在南黄海海域内;未来第2次、第3次M≥6强震或强震群可能分别发生在2058、2070年前后.

    Abstract:

    The Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region is one of the key seismic monitoring & defence areas in the eastern part of China.Since 1846,M≥6 strong earthquakes have showed an obvious commensurability and orderliness in this region.The main orderly values are 74-75 a,57-58 a,11-12 a and 5-6 a,wherein 74-75 a and 57-58 a carries an outstanding predictive role.According to the information prediction theory of Weng Wenbo,we conceived the 2D-and 3D-ordered network structure of M≥6 strong earthquakes in the South Yellow Sea and the whole research region.Based on this,we analyzed and discussed the variation of seismicity in detail and also made trend prediction of M≥6 strong earthquakes in the future.The results showed that since 1998 it has entered into a new quiet episode which may continue until about year 2042;and the first M≥6 strong earthquake in the next active episode will probably occur around year 2053,with the likely location in the area of the South Yellow Sea;furthermore,the second and the third ones or strong earthquake swarm in the future will probably occur around year 2058 and 2070.

    参考文献
    [1] 翁文波.预测论基础[M].北京:石油工业出版社, 1984 WENG Wenbo.Fundamentals of forecasting theory[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press, 1984
    [2] 翁文波, 吕牛顿, 张清.预测学[M].北京:石油工业出版社, 1996 WENG Wenbo, LÜ Niudun, ZHANG Qing.Theory of forecasting[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press, 1996
    [3] 翁文波原著, 门可佩, 秦伟良整理.初级数据分布[M].北京:石油工业出版社, 2004 WENG Wenbo, MEN Kepei, QIN Weiliang.Primary data distribution[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press, 2004
    [4] 徐道一, 王明太, 耿庆国, 等.翁文波院士的信息预测理论体系的创新性及其意义[J].地球物理学进展, 2007, 22(4):1375-1379 XU Daoyi, WANG Mingtai, GENG Qingguo, et al.The creativity of informative forecasting theory and it's significance[J].Progress in Geophysics, 2007, 22(4):1375-1379
    [5] 徐道一, Ouchi T.亚洲大地震的时间有序性与沙罗周期[J].地球物理学报, 1999, 42(增刊1):42-48 XU Daoyi, Ouchi T.Temporal ordering of earthquakes in Asia and Saros period[J].Chinese J.Geophys, 1999, 42(sup1):42-48
    [6] XU Daoyi, Ouchi T.Spatiotemporal ordering of great earthquakes (M≥8.0) in Asia during 1934—1970 years[R].Research Report of RCUSS, Kobe University, 1998(2):159-170
    [7] XU Daoyi, Ouchi T.Equidistant ordering of shallow earthquakes (M≥7.5) in and around Japan since 1890.Research Report of RCUSS, Kobe University, 1998(2):141-158
    [8] XU Daoyi.Asteriadis G, Arabelos D.Equidistance ordering of large earthquakes in the aegean and surrounding areas[J].Survey Review, 1999, 35(273):204-214
    [9] XU Daoyi, Ouchi T.On the network feature of large earthquake occurrence that appear in the spatio-tempral distribution[C]//Programme and Abstracts.The Seismological Society of Japan, 1997, 2:A54
    [10] 徐道一.大地震发生的网络性质:兼论有关地震预测的争论[J].地学前缘, 2001, 8(2):211-216 XU Daoyi.The network features of large earthquake occurrence and some words on the debate of earthquake prediction[J].Earth Science Frontiers, 2001, 8(2):211-216
    [11] 徐道一.自组织网络与灾害链研究[C]//高建国.苏门答腊地震海啸影响中国华南天气的初步研究:中国首届灾害链学术研讨会论文集.北京:气象出版社, 2007:175-179 XU Daoyi.Research on self-organization network and disaster chains[C]//GAO Jianguo.Proceedings of the First Disaster Chains Seminar in China.Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 2007:175-179
    [12] XU Daoyi, MEN Kepei, DENG Zhihui.Self-organized ordering of earthquakes (M≥8) in Mainland China[J].Engineering Sciences, 2010, 8(4):13-17
    [13] 门可佩.新疆地区M≥7强震有序网络结构及其预测研究[J].南京信息工程大学学报:自然科学版, 2012, 4(3):270-278 MEN Kepei.Ordered network structure of M≥7 strong earthquakes and its prediction in Xinjiang[J].Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology:Natural Science Edition, 2012, 4(3):270-278
    [14] 门可佩.青藏高原北部地区M≥7强震有序网络结构及其预测研究[J].南京信息工程大学学报:自然科学版, 2012, 4(4):317-326 MEN Kepei.Ordered network structure of M≥7 strong earthquakes and its prediction in northern Tibetan Plateau region[J].Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology:Natural Science Edition, 2012, 4(4):317-326
    [15] 门可佩.中国大陆8级大震有序网络结构及其预测研究[J].南京信息工程大学学报:自然科学版, 2012, 4(5):466-475 MEN Kepei.Research on ordered network structure of M≥8 great earthquakes and its prediction in Mainland China[J].Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology:Natural Science Edition, 2012, 4(5):466-475
    [16] 门可佩.青藏北块M≥7强震有序网络结构与汶川8级大震预测回顾[J].中国工程科学, 2009, 11(6):82-88 MEN Kepei.Orderly network structure of M≥7 strong earthquakes in the north block of Tibet-Plateau and retrospect of prediction for Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake[J].Engineering Sciences, 2009, 11(6):82-88
    [17] 门可佩.江苏—南黄海地区M≥6强震预测探索[J].地震地磁观测与研究, 1993, 14(2):7-12 MEN Kepei.Research for the prediction of strong earthquakes(M≥6) in Jiangsu-the South Yellow Sea region.Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research, 1993, 14(2):7-12
    [18] 门可佩, 赵兵.江苏—南黄海地区地震活动趋势研究[J].地震地磁观测与研究, 1997, 18(3):65-72 MEN Kepei, ZHAO Bing.Research on the seismicity trend of moderately strong earthquakes in Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research, 1997, 18(3):65-72
    [19] 门可佩.江苏—南黄海地区强震有序网络结构与地震活动分期研究[J].地球物理学进展, 2006, 21(3):1028-1032 MEN Kepei.Ordered network structure of strong earthquakes and division of seismic period in Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region[J].Progress in Geophysics, 2006, 21(3):1028-1032
    [20] 门可佩.江苏—南黄海地区地震链及其有序网络结构研究[J].地球物理学报, 2009, 52(10):2573-2579 MEN Kepei.Research on earthquake chains and its orderly network structure in Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 2009, 52(10):2573-2579
    [21] 谢华章, 田建明.长江中下游—南黄海地震带地震活动趋势分析[J].地震学刊, 1998(3):1-6 XIE Huazhang, TIAN Jianming.Tendency analysis of seismicity for seismic zone of Changjiang mid-downstream reach and South Yellow Sea[J].Journal of Seismology, 1998(3):1-6
    [22] 田建明, 徐徐, 谢华章, 等.江苏及南黄海地区历史地震分布类型特征[J].地震学报, 2004, 26(4):432-439 TIAN Jianming, XU Xu, XIE Huazhang, et al.Distribution characteristics of historical earthquakes classes in Jiangsu province and South Huanghai Sea region[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica, 2004, 26(4):432-439
    [23] 江苏省地震局.江苏地震志[M].北京:地震出版社, 1987 Seismological Bureau of Jiangsu Province.Historical records of Jiangsu earthquake[M].Beijing:Seismological Press, 1987
    [24] 国家地震局震害防御司.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪—公元1911年)[M].北京:地震出版社, 1995 Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention, State Seismological Bureau.Catalogue of Chinese historical strong earthquakes (the 23rd century B C—1911 A D)[M].Beijing:Seismological Press, 1995
    [25] 中国地震局震害防御司.中国近代地震目录(公元1912—1990年, Ms≥4.7)[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社, 1999 Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention, China Earthquake Administration.Catalogue of Chinese recent earthquakes (1912—1990 A D, Ms≥4.7)[M].Beijing:China Science and Technology Press, 1999
    [26] 约翰·霍兰.涌现:从混沌到有序[M].陈禹译.上海:上海科学技术出版社, 2006 John Holland.Emergence:From chaos to order[M].Shanghai:Shanghai Science and Technology Press, 2006
    [27] 许绍燮.地震预报发展战略在于创新[J].国际地震动态, 2005(5):30-33 XU Shaoxie.The strategy of development of earthquake prediction should relied on innovation[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology, 2005(5):30-33
    引证文献
    引证文献 [2]
    网友评论
    网友评论
    分享到微博
    发 布
引用本文

门可佩.江苏—南黄海地区M≥6强震有序网络结构及其预测研究[J].南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版),2014,6(3):268-274
MEN Kepei. Ordered network structure of M≥6 strong earthquakes and its prediction in Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, 2014,6(3):268-274

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:874
  • 下载次数: 2549
  • HTML阅读次数: 0
  • 引用次数: 0
历史
  • 收稿日期:2013-01-12
  • 在线发布日期: 2014-06-25

地址:江苏省南京市宁六路219号    邮编:210044

联系电话:025-58731025    E-mail:nxdxb@nuist.edu.cn

南京信息工程大学学报 ® 2025 版权所有  技术支持:北京勤云科技发展有限公司