湖北省PM2.5质量浓度遥感估算与时空分布特征
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国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0212600);国家自然科学基金(41571344);湖北省自然科学基金(2016CFB620)


Estimation of PM2.5 concentration over Hubei province using remote sensing: analysis of spatial and temporal variations
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    摘要:

    针对地面站点稀疏不足以提供高空间覆盖、高空间分辨率的面域PM2.5数据支撑区域细颗粒物污染防治的问题,以湖北地区2015-2017年的MODIS卫星遥感气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)产品数据为主预测量,结合温度、湿度、风速、压强等气象参数和植被指数数据等辅助预测量,建立了AOD-PM2.5关系逐日变化的线性混合效应(LME)模型,用于估算湖北地区的PM2.5浓度水平.利用十折交叉验证方法进行了模型精度评估.结果表明:1)2015-2017年的交叉验证R2分别达到0.89、0.85和0.88,利用MODIS AOD数据反演近地面PM2.5质量浓度的线性混合效应模型能很好地用于区域细颗粒物遥感监测;2)省内PM2.5质量浓度空间差异显著,鄂东、鄂南和鄂北高,鄂西北和鄂东南低;3)全省PM2.5估算时空数据年均值呈下降态势,分别为65.6±39.8、57.1±34.1和48.1±28.3 μg/m3,各市除随州、咸宁2016、2017年年均值持平外,都呈下降趋势.

    Abstract:

    In order to solve the issue that monitoring PM2.5 levels based on sparse ground stations is insufficient to provide PM2.5 concentration data with broad coverage and high spatial resolutions and support regional fine particulate matter pollution prevention and control,the province of Hubei was selected as an area of research.MODIS AOD was used as the main predictor and was combined with meteorological parameters,such as temperature,relative humidity,wind speed,pressure,and normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) data,as auxiliary predictors in a linear mixed effects model to establish the daily relationship of AOD-PM2.5 from 2015 to 2017 in order to estimate PM2.5 levels in the study area.The model was validated by a tenfold cross validation (CV) method.The results showed that the model performances were quite satisfactory,with cross-validated correlation coefficient values (CV R2) between the PM2.5 estimations and observations of 2015-2017 of 0.89,0.85,and 0.88,respectively,suggesting that this method can be used to monitor regional PM2.5 concentrations with rather high accuracy.The temporal and spatial variation characteristics were analyzed based on the observed and model-estimated PM2.5 data and showed that distinct spatial variations of PM2.5 concentrations existed,with high values in the east,south,and north and low values in the northwest and southeast.In addition,a declining trend of PM2.5 concentrations in Hubei province was observed,with the annual mean values for 2015-2017 of 65.6±39.8 μg/m3,57.1±34.1 μg/m3,and 48.1±28.3 μg/m3,respectively.In terms of city,all cities showed a downward trend,except for Xianning and Suizhou,which had steady annual mean values in 2016 and 2017.

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计羽西,祝波,朱忠敏.湖北省PM2.5质量浓度遥感估算与时空分布特征[J].南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版),2018,10(5):606-615
JI Yuxi, ZHU Bo, ZHU Zhongmin. Estimation of PM2.5 concentration over Hubei province using remote sensing: analysis of spatial and temporal variations[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, 2018,10(5):606-615

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  • 收稿日期:2018-08-15
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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-11-02
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