基于核密度与Copula函数的风光储日前竞价优化模型
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作者:
作者单位:

1.国网山西省电力公司电力科学研究院;2.华北电力大学保定

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中图分类号:

TM73

基金项目:

国网山西省电力公司科技项目


Optimization Model for Day Ahead Bidding of Wind and Solar Energy Storage Based on Kernel Density and Copula Function
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Power Science Research Institute,State Grid Shanxi Electric Power Company;2.North China Electric Power University Baoding,Baoding

Fund Project:

State Grid Shanxi Electric Power Company Technology Project

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    摘要:

    由于风光发电的不确定性特点,风光电站在上网时面临着电能平衡和出力波动的挑战。针对不同地区风光出力特性和误差分布的差异化特性问题,提出基于核密度与Copula函数的风光储日前竞价优化模型。首先采用核密度估计方法对风光出力进行概率密度函数的计算,引入阿基米德簇Copula函数对风光出力的联合分布函数进行求解,然后采用蒙特卡罗抽样和K-means聚类方法生成典型出力场景。最后建立考虑储能峰谷套利的配备储能的风光电站日前竞价优化模型。结果表明所提出的模型提升了描述风光电站的出力特性的准确性,实现了更优的上网与储能策略,验证了增加收益与提高准确性上的有效性,使风光电站集群能够更好地应对出力波动问题,提高收益。

    Abstract:

    Due to the uncertain characteristics of wind power generation, wind power stations are faced with the challenge of energy balance and output fluctuation when they are online. Aiming at the differential characteristics of wind power and error distribution in different regions, a wind storage day bidding optimization model based on kernel density and Copula function is proposed. Firstly, the kernel density estimation method is used to calculate the probability density function of the scenic power, and the Archimedes cluster Copula function is introduced to solve the joint distribution function of the scenic power. Then Monte Carlo sampling and K-means clustering method are used to generate the typical output scene. Finally, a pre-day bidding optimization model of wind power station equipped with energy storage considering energy storage peak-valley arbitrage is established. The results show that the proposed model improves the accuracy of describing the output characteristics of the wind-solar power station, realizes a better Internet access and energy storage strategy, verifies the effectiveness of increasing revenue and improving accuracy, and enables the wind-solar power plant cluster to better cope with the output fluctuation problem and improve revenue.

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薄利明,郑惠萍,程雪婷,王天宇,卢灿,许小峰.基于核密度与Copula函数的风光储日前竞价优化模型[J].南京信息工程大学学报,,():

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  • 收稿日期:2024-06-19
  • 最后修改日期:2024-08-22
  • 录用日期:2024-08-23
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