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输电线路雷击事故发生前的气象要素变化特征分析-以石家庄市为例
投稿时间:2019-06-16  修订日期:2020-06-15  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
张翠华 石家庄市气象局 zch7695@sina.com 
基金项目:东亚干旱半干旱区大气边界层高度对干湿变化影响的机理研究(41875085)
中文摘要:利用石家庄地区1990~2017年输电线路雷击事故发生的详细资料,结合输电线路雷击发生前的气象要素数据,利用发生频率、线性趋势和波动幅度等统计方法,分析了输电线路雷击发生的时空分布特征,输电线路雷击发生前6小时内的定时风、气压、空气湿度、气温和地温变化,通过界定输电线路雷击累计发生频率确定了其气象要素特征指标,并利用EC数值预报和自动站实况对比,检验了2018年发生的输电线路雷击事故等级预报的准确性。结果表明:输电线路雷击发生呈逐年明显增加趋势;输电线路雷击主要发生在6-8月,其中8月发生输电线路雷击最多;输电线路雷击主要发生在午后到夜间,其中16-21时发生输电线路雷击最多;输电线路雷击主要发生在西部山区,井陉中部为高发中心,自西北向东南输电线路雷击发生逐渐减少。总体上地面最多风向受气旋辐合影响由SE经NE向NW反时针旋转;本站气压和相对湿度上升,或气温和地表温度下降时,输电线路雷击发生次数较多,波动幅度较大;本站气压和相对湿度下降,或气温和地表温度上升时,输电线路雷击发生次数较少,波动幅度较小。此项研究为准确预测防范当地输电线路雷击事故提供科学参考。
中文关键词:输电线路雷击  气象要素  特征指标  预测检验
 
Characteristics analysis of meteorological elements change before transmission line lightning strikes-taking Shijiazhuang city as an example
Abstract:Based on the detailed information on transmission line lightning strike and meteorological elements data before transmission line lightning strikes from 1990 to 2017 in Shijiazhuang,utilized frequency,linear trend and fluctuation amplitude,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of transmission line lightning strikes,variation of timing wind,pressure,air humidity,air temperature and ground temperature before transmission line lightning strikes in 6 hours were analyzed.By defining the cumulative occurrence frequency of transmission line lightning strikes, the meteorological element characteristic index of the occurrence of transmission line lightning strikes was determined, and the accuracy of the prediction of the level of transmission line lightning strikes in 2018 was tested by comparing the EC numerical prediction with the automatic station live data.The results show that,transmission line lightning strikes had increased significantly in recent years,occurring from June to August with August mostly, occurring mainly from afternoon to night with 16-21 mostly.Transmission line lightning strikes mainly occurred in the western mountainous areas with being in Jingxing’s central area, which gradually decreased from northwest to southeast.On the whole,the maximum wind direction on the ground affected by the convergence of cyclones rotated anticlockwise from SE through NE to NW.When air pressure and relative humidity was rising, or when air temperature and surface temperature was dropping, lightning strikes on transmission lines occurred frequently and fluctuation amplitude was greater;when air pressure and relative humidity was dropping, or when air temperature and surface temperature was rising, the frequency of lightning strikes on the transmission line was less and fluctuation amplitude was smaller. The study can provide scientific reference for predicting and preventing local transmission line lightning strikes accurately.
keywords:transmission line lightning strikes  meteorological elements  characteristics index  predicted test
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