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CMIP5全球气候模式对贵州省极端气温的预估
投稿时间:2016-11-07    点此下载全文
引用本文:张娇艳,李扬,吴战平,李忠燕,段莹.CMIP5全球气候模式对贵州省极端气温的预估[J].南京信息工程大学学报,2018,(2):244~251
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作者单位
张娇艳 贵州省气候中心, 贵阳, 550002
贵州省山地气候与资源重点实验室, 贵阳, 550002 
李扬 贵州省贵阳市气象局, 贵阳, 550001 
吴战平 贵州省气候中心, 贵阳, 550002 
李忠燕 贵州省气候中心, 贵阳, 550002 
段莹 贵州省气候中心, 贵阳, 550002 
基金项目:中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(2013031);贵州省气象局青年科技基金(黔气科合QN[2016]08号);贵州省气象科技开放基金(黔气科KF[2018]01号)
中文摘要:利用泰勒图客观地评估了贵州省在参照时段1986—2005年8个CMIP5模式试验结果对气温的模拟能力,并采用在等权重系数条件下的集合平均结果计算了贵州省21世纪不同阶段不同情景下未来极端气温指数.研究表明:8个模式的集合平均的模拟效果能较好地模拟用于计算极端气温指数的基础数据,包括日平均气温、日最低气温和日最高气温.根据集合平均的结果,不同RCPs排放情景下21世纪贵州省相对于基准期大于25℃的高温日数(SU)、最低气温的最低值(TNN)和生长季长度(GSL)均表现为增加的趋势,而小于0℃的霜冻日数(FD)则呈现减少的趋势,排放越高,增加或减少的趋势越明显.RCP8.5、RCP4.5和RCP2.6情景下2006—2099年贵州省极端气温指数相对于1986—2005年SU、TNN、FD和GSL的变化速率分别为8.06~1.30 d/(10 a)、0.49~0.07℃/(10 a)、-4.99~-0.97 d/(10 a)和3.33~0.04 d/(10 a).
中文关键词:CMIP5  不同RCP情景  气候变化预估  极端气温
 
Projected changes in extreme temperature events in Guizhou based on CMIP5 simulations
Abstract:Based on the climate simulations from 8 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models, their simulation capabilities for air temperature in Guizhou have been examined by using Taylor diagram for period of 1986-2005.Future changes in extreme temperature events under the RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios with the simple multi-model ensemble method are presented for the 21st century over Guizhou.Results show that the simple multi-model ensemble method from the 8 CMIP5 modes can well simulate the spatial distribution of daily average temperature, daily minimum temperature and daily maximum temperature, which are necessary to compute the indexes of extreme temperature events.Project results show that in the 21st century, Guizhou's maximum temperature days (SU), values of extreme minimum temperature (TNN), and days of growing season length (GSL) are likely to increase;while the frost days (FD) are likely to decrease;moreover, the increasing and decreasing trends are more obvious with more gas emission.Relative to period of 1986-2005, the linear variation trends of Guizhou's SU, TNN, FD and GSL during 2006-2099 are likely to be 8.06-1.30 d/(10 a), 0.49-0.07℃/(10 a), -4.99-0.97 d/(10 a), and 3.33-0.04 d/(10 a), respectively, under the RCPs scenarios.
keywords:CMIP5  RCPs scenarios  projected climate change  extreme temperature events
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