有序网络结构与中国大陆西部8级大震有序对预测研究
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Ordered network structure and its prediction for the ordered pair of M≥8 great earthquakes in west China
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    摘要:

    自1303年以来的710 a间,中国大陆共发生M≥8大震23次,呈现出显著的自组织有序性.特别需要指出的是,从1902年到2001年的100 a间,中国大陆西部地区发生了3对前后间隔4 a的8级大震有序对.在对中国大陆8级大震有序网络构建及其总结研究的基础上,补充新信息,进一步优化完善并构建8级大震二维平面与三维立体有序网络结构,并由此进行预测:2022与2026年前后中国大陆西部有可能发生新的8级大震有序对.

    Abstract:

    According to the statistical analysis,a total of 23 M≥8 earthquakes occurred in mainland China from 1303 to 2012.The seismic activity of M≥8 earthquakes has showed an obvious self-organized orderliness.It should be remarked especially that,there were three ordered pairs of M≥8 earthquakes occurred in west China during 1902-2001,of which,the time interval of two earthquakes in each pair was four years.This is a unique and rare earthquake example in earthquake history of China and the whole world.In the guidance of the information forecasting theory of WENG Wenbo,based on previous research results,combining ordered analysis with complex network technology,we focus on the summary of the ordered network structure of M≥8 earthquakes,and add new information to further optimize network,hence construct the 2D-and 3D-ordered network structure of M≥8 earthquakes and make prediction research.At last,a new prediction opinion is presented that the future ordered pair of M≥8 earthquakes will probably occur around 2022 and 2026 in west China.

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门可佩.有序网络结构与中国大陆西部8级大震有序对预测研究[J].南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版),2015,7(2):174-183
MEN Kepei. Ordered network structure and its prediction for the ordered pair of M≥8 great earthquakes in west China[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, 2015,7(2):174-183

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  • 收稿日期:2013-04-19
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  • 在线发布日期: 2015-04-23
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