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江苏—南黄海地区M≥6强震有序网络结构及其预测研究
投稿时间:2013-01-12    点此下载全文
引用本文:门可佩.江苏—南黄海地区M≥6强震有序网络结构及其预测研究[J].南京信息工程大学学报,2014,6(3):268~274
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作者单位
门可佩 南京信息工程大学 数学与统计学院, 南京, 210044 
中文摘要:江苏—南黄海地区是我国东部地震重点监视防御区之一,自1846年以来,该研究区M≥6强震活动具有显著的可公度性和有序性,其主要有序值为74~75 a、57~58 a、11~12 a和5~6 a,其中74~75 a和57~58 a具有突出的预测作用.根据翁文波信息预测理论,构建了该研究区全区和南黄海海域M≥6强震的二维和三维有序网络结构,据此分析讨论了该区地震活动的分期,并对未来M≥6强震趋势进行了预测.研究结论表明:该区从1998年起进入新一轮平静幕,此幕可能持续到2042年前后;该区下次活跃幕的首次M≥6强震可能发生在2053年前后,地点很可能在南黄海海域内;未来第2次、第3次M≥6强震或强震群可能分别发生在2058、2070年前后.
中文关键词:江苏—南黄海地区  地震活动分幕  强震链  信息有序网络结构  M≥6强震预测
 
Ordered network structure of M≥6 strong earthquakes and its prediction in Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region
Abstract:The Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region is one of the key seismic monitoring & defence areas in the eastern part of China.Since 1846,M≥6 strong earthquakes have showed an obvious commensurability and orderliness in this region.The main orderly values are 74-75 a,57-58 a,11-12 a and 5-6 a,wherein 74-75 a and 57-58 a carries an outstanding predictive role.According to the information prediction theory of Weng Wenbo,we conceived the 2D-and 3D-ordered network structure of M≥6 strong earthquakes in the South Yellow Sea and the whole research region.Based on this,we analyzed and discussed the variation of seismicity in detail and also made trend prediction of M≥6 strong earthquakes in the future.The results showed that since 1998 it has entered into a new quiet episode which may continue until about year 2042;and the first M≥6 strong earthquake in the next active episode will probably occur around year 2053,with the likely location in the area of the South Yellow Sea;furthermore,the second and the third ones or strong earthquake swarm in the future will probably occur around year 2058 and 2070.
keywords:Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region  division of seismic period  strong earthquake chains  imformational ordered network structure  prediction of M≥6 strong earthquake
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